FEATURES OF SCENARIO MODELING OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTER STRUCTURES

Abstract

Scenario modeling of regional development of cluster structures is an effective tool for identifying opti-mal ways to enhance regional competitiveness, strengthen economic independence, and integrate into global markets. This article examines the key aspects and approaches to developing scenario modeling for cluster structure develop-ment in the context of regional economies. The focus is on analyzing the interconnections between economic, social, and institutional factors influencing the formation and operational efficiency of clusters. Methodological approaches to scenario building are proposed, including the analysis of internal and external development conditions, assessment of regional potential, and modeling the impact of various management strategies on the development of cluster structures. Special attention is given to the formation of synergetic effects within clusters achieved through collaboration among enterprises, research institutions, and governmental bodies. The article explores the role of innovation in ensuring sus-tainable cluster development and analyzes the opportunities for integrating digital technologies into management and forecasting processes. The proposed development scenarios for clusters consider global trends such as economic green-ing, digitalization, and integration into international markets. A significant aspect is the consideration of risks and un-certainties associated with external and internal factors affecting cluster development. For this purpose, SWOT analysis, PESTEL analysis, and multifactor modeling methods were applied, enabling the creation of adaptive development strategies. The article presents the results of the practical application of the proposed approaches using the example of a specific region, demonstrating the potential for achieving positive changes under the implementation of suggested scenarios. Overall, the study highlights the necessity of a comprehensive approach to scenario modeling that takes into account regional specifics, resource potential, and dynamic changes in the external environment. This will contribute to the creation of sustainable and competitive cluster structures capable of ensuring the long-term socio-economic development of regions.