COMPREHENSIVE MODEL FOR DIAGNOSING BANKRUPTCY RISKS UNDER CONDITIONS OF ECONOMICS TRANSFORMATION

Abstract

In the current context of economic transformation, marked by profound internal and external challenges, the importance of timely identification and assessment of bankruptcy risks is growing significantly. The problem of bankruptcy of enterprises is particularly acute, as they lose their ability to function effectively when faced with disruption of logistics chains, shortage of financial resources, losses of production capacities and sales markets. For Ukraine, this issue has gained particular urgency due to the full-scale war, which has dramatically altered and reshaped the economic environment, complicated business operations, and led to the destruction of many structurally important components of the national economy. Under such conditions, the development of a comprehensive model for diagnosing bankruptcy risks becomes critically important. This model enables not only early detection of threats to financial solvency but also the forecasting of potential development scenarios while taking into account changes in both the macroeconomic and sectoral environments. Modern challenges – such as institutional instability, loss of sales markets, disruption of supply chains, energy threats, and financial constraints — require an updated approach to diagnosing crisis conditions. In this context, the integration of quantitative methods (in particular, multifactor analysis, neural networks, and logistic regression) with qualitative assessments that reflect the specific features of Ukraine’s transforming economy during wartime becomes especially significant. Therefore, the modern model must be adaptive to dynamic changes, with the ability to be updated based on current statistical and financial data, and capable of reflecting real financial risks while considering regional, sectoral, and institutional specifics. The development of such a model serves as a key tool for managing the financial resilience of enterprises, supporting investment attractiveness, and ensuring national economic security during wartime and in the post-war recovery period.